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Feb 17, 2026
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SHORT
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UK unemployment ticked up to 5.2% (vs 5.1% exp) and wage growth cooled to 4.2% (vs 4.6% exp). The "sticky inflation" narrative in the UK is breaking due to labor market weakness. This forces the Bank of England's hand. Markets moved to price an ~80% chance of a March cut. Lower yields = Higher Bond Prices (Gilts) and a weaker currency (Pound). LONG UK Government Bonds (Gilts) to capture the yield compression; SHORT Sterling as the yield differential narrows against the USD. Inflation data (CPI) tomorrow surprises to the upside, forcing the BoE to hold. |
Bloomberg Markets
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